The Promise of Peace in a Day
The Russia-Ukraine war has spanned for way more than one would have thought or imagined. It has obviously had a major impact on global economies and politics. While the two have been in constant turmoil, the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump’s words have gained significant attention. He had boasted that he could end this war within 24 hours looking at the number of killings as the aftermath. This raised quite a few eyebrows and its feasibility has been questioned ever since. Achieving this looks quite impossible given the tumultuous circumstances. That said, anything can happen when Trump and his unpredictability are in power.
The Root Cause
The beginning of this conflicting situation can be traced back to the Soviet era. Russia always wished to dominate the former Soviet States. The discord surged when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 following Ukraine’s pro-Europian Union revolution. This set off a separatist movement on Ukraine’s side. Over the years, the conflict stayed active in the form of occasional ceasefires. It saw a dramatic escalation in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine in full force. This is continuing till date, causing massive devastation.
Ukraine Stuck between Hope and Fear
Ukrainians are both optimistic and cautious. Its President Volodymyr Zelensky is hopeful of the war ending sooner with Trump’s re-election. But at the same time, there are doubts lingering. No one can say for sure if the possibility of war ending is meagre or much.
Zelensky threw light on his earlier telephonic conversation with the U.S. President which instilled hopes. Trump has time and again emphasised that his bend is towards the ending of the war. However, he has not yet revealed how he plans to do so. Here the fear comes in for Ukraine. The U.S. has been its military aid ever since. If suddenly, Trump chooses to withdraw this support, Ukraine will not be left with much to face the Russian forces with.
Where does Russia Stand in this?
With Trump’s claim of ending the war in a day, hope ignites amongst the Russians. If the U.S. is to withdraw its military and financial aid to Ukraine in the process, Russia will automatically assume greater power. Though, this is not as straightforward as it seems. Trump has been seen praising the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, more than usual. At the same time, he has also threatened to bomb Moscow should it try to make bigger attacks on the opponent. This clearly conveys that he is stern on his statement of ending the war in a day.
Challenges on the Way
The promise looks tempting and Trump looks like he would do what he has said. Certain challenges must be overcome to achieve the ideal sans-war situation.
Firstly, how Trump aims to end the war is still undefined. However powerful a position he may hold, achieving this goal would still require a lot of groundwork and strategy.
Secondly, he is currently not holding the office officially. So, technically he cannot dictate foreign policy until he officially swears in on January 20. Till then, the power remains in Joe Biden’s hands, including the decision to support Ukraine further or not.
Biden might use this power to extend US support to Ukraine before Trump takes the charge. This can complicate the scenario even more for him when he officially comes into action.
Moreover, the conflict is based on not one, but a multitude of issues like Crimea’s annexation and the status of the Donbas region.
The Bigger Picture
Now, the ending of this war is currently the most desired situation. However, it will change the dynamic not just for Russia and Ukraine, but the whole of geopolitics. Trump, and the US in general, will hail as global peacemakers. This might alienate those friendly nations who were in support of Ukraine. The Western big powers might leave smaller nations feeling even more powerless.
Whether Trump will truly live up to his promise is still a question, but the world has all hopes invested in him. The promise has sparked hopes but fulfilling it would require a lot more than just words. Hopefully, Trump will do all that is in his power to achieve what is best for all.
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